地壳形变与地震预测研究中的测量精度

ACCURACY OF GEODETIC DATA AND ITS ROLE IN RESEARCHES ON CRUSTAL DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

对地壳形变与地震预测研究中普遍存在对测量成果精度要求过于苛刻的问题进行了分析,结果认为这可能导致以前很多有价值的信息未能得到充分的利用。追求高质量的观测数据是对的,但针对实际问题的性质和需求,首先应强调如何充分发挥历史资料的作用,因为历史资料可能精度不高,但更可能是无法取代的。因此要最大限度地挖掘原有数据中的有用信息,切不可因误差较大而放弃可能获取有用信息的机会。并以中国大陆1999—2009两期GPS垂直形变速率场及其分析和应用为例,用实例进一步阐释这一观点。

The problem by over considered for geodetic data precision in most of the researches on crustal deformation and earthquake prediction is analyzed.The problem might let so conservative as to some valuable information in the data are not fully utilized.Pursuing high quality of the data is right,but the first consideration should be how to fully use the historic data according to the reality and the requirements,because the historic data are not replaceable.Thus,it should do the best for mining information from the data,and not give up the chance to get information from it only due to more deviation of the data.Finally,this viewpoint is further demonstrated with the results in an example,utilization and analysis of velocity field of crust vertical movement monitored by GPS in Chinese continent from 1999 to 2009.