河南农民收入增长趋势分析

The trend of farmers' income growth in Henan

针对河南农民收入时序,首先建立线性退势模型,发现存在1983、1990、1996、2003、2007等5个结构性断点。引入时间虚拟变量后建立了分段线性模型。发现自1983—1989年间年均收入绝对增幅最低,而2003年后增幅则明显高于历史平均水平,但2007年后略有下降。

This paper suggested a withdrawal model,based on the time series data of the farmers＇ per net capita income in Henan.And also,five structural break points in 1983,1990,1996,2003,and 2007 respectively,so Piecewise Linear Model was put forward with five time dummy variables.By stimulating and analyzing the historical volatility and stages growth trends of farmers＇ income,the paper concluded that the rapid growth rate from 2003 to 2007 was obviously faster than the historical average,meanwhile,the growth rate from 1983 to 1989 was the slowest.