地表沉陷预测参数可靠性分析及取值优化研究

Reliability Analysis and Optimization of Value on Parameters of Surface Subsidence Prediction

分析了用概率积分法进行开采沉陷预测过程中参数的可靠性,针对预测参数为具有一定分布规律的随机变量在计算时仅取固定值的问题,首次提出了采用随机变量来动态确定预测参数,并用随机模拟计算开采沉陷预计的参数变量。采用该方法对潞安司马矿1101工作面进行了预测,预测结果与实测值具有很好的吻合性。为地表沉陷预测提供了可靠的理论依据。

Reliability of the parameters in mining subsidence process via probability integral method was analyzed for the first time by adopting the Theory of Reliability, and the dynamic determination of expected parameters by random variable was put forward for the first time in connection with only fixed value being chosen for random variables with certain distribution laws. In addition, the estimated parameter variables for mining subsidence was improved by adopting random simulation method, which was proved to be in relatively good accordance with real value.