洞庭湖区域夏季降水与全球大洋海温异常关系的SVD分析

The Singular Value Decomposition Analysis of Relation between Summer Precipitation in the Dongting Lake Region and the Abnormal Global Ocean Surface Temperature

利用洞庭湖区域21站1960～2008年夏季降水量资料和美国国家海洋、大气管理局(NOAA)提供的扩展重建海温(ERSST)资料,采用相关分析和SVD方法,探讨了洞庭湖区域夏季降水与全球海温异常的关系。结果表明,全球大洋存在3个稳定维持的关键海区,其海温场与洞庭湖区域夏季降水有显著正相关关系。当关键区海温偏高(低)时,洞庭湖区域夏季降水易偏多(少)。3个关键区海温场的变化是洞庭湖区域夏季降水异常预测的一个重要前兆信号。

By dint of the summer precipitation data from 21 stations in the Dongting Lake region during 1960-2008 and the sea surface temperature（SST） data from NOAA,the spatial and temporal distributions of summer precipitation and their correlations with SST are analyzed.The coupling relationship between the anomalous distribution in summer precipitation and the variations of SST has between studied with the Singular Value Decomposition（SVD） analysis.The increase or decrease of summer precipitation in the Dongting Lake region is closely associated with the SST anomalies in three key regions.The variation of SST in the three key regions has been proved to be a significant previous signal to anomaly of summer rainfall in Dongting Lake region.