财政扩张与供需失衡:孰为因? 孰为果?

Fiscal Policy Expansionary and Macroeconomic Unbalance: Which is the Reason?

一般认为,在经济出现内需不足和供给过剩的失衡状态时,政府倾向于通过财政扩张来克服经济不景气,即经济失衡是因,财政扩张是果。而本文的研究发现,中国财政扩张也是经济失衡的重要原因,即财政扩张与经济失衡存在循环累积因果关系。原因在于:以带有累退性质的商品税为主的税制结构强化了居民消费约束,也促使国民收入分配向政府和企业倾斜;供需失衡容易导致政府扩大财政支出和实行增税政策,这将进一步强化供需失衡局面;尽管面临宏观经济失衡,但是政府调控经济的手段存在很强的工具性约束,短期看财政政策有助于带动经济增长,但是从长期看,消除危机的政策可能成为下一次危机的诱因。

The general view is when macroeconomic performance is that supply exceeds demand, government will use expansionary fiscal policy to resist the recession. So the economic recession is the reason, and the expansionary, fiscal policy is the result. However, this article finds that China＇ s expansionary fiscal policy is also the reason of the economic unbalance, so the two phenomena exist the relation of cumulative causation. The reason is that： the regressive tax system intensifies the restriction of resident consumption, and impels the share of government and enterprise in the national revenue to increase; the imbalance of supply and demand easily lead government fiscal expenditure expansionary and tax growth, so it will reinforce the economic imbalance; despite economy faces the serious structure imbalance, the tool choice of government economy policies has great restriction, so the fiscal policy may impel economy growth in short time, but it may cause a new round of economy recession in long run.