货币政策与贸易不平衡的调整

Monetary Policy and Trade Imbalance Adjustment

本文建立了一个开放小国随机动态一般均衡模型,研究不同的货币政策和汇率政策对调整贸易不平衡的作用,同时考虑了资本开放与否对不同政策效果的影响。分析发现,由于名义粘性的作用,无论资本开放与否,调整价格都无法快速实现贸易平衡,并会引起产出和物价的较大波动。而较快的汇率调整政策会较快实现贸易平衡,且无论资本开放与否,都不会引起经济波动。从福利角度比较,较快的汇率调整总是优于价格调整,且在资本开放环境下的调整总是优于资本封闭下的调整。通过中国数据校准和模拟发现,在渐进调整汇率的政策下,价格水平被迫作出调整可能是带来2005年人民币汇率改革之后经济波动的原因。

The paper sets up a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium nmdel to study the effects of nominal policies on the dynamics of trade imbalance adjustment under both capital control and capital flow environments. The analysis shows that, the price adjustment policy cannot reduce the trade surpluses quickly, and it will produce large fluctuations of output and inflation. While a fast adjustment of exchange rate will rebalance trade rapidly, raises no fluctuation of output and inflation under both capital control and capital flow environments. From the prospective of ,~＇elfare, the fast adjustment of exchange rate is better than the [）rice adjustment policy, and adjustment ureter capital flow is better thau a,,tjustmct^t under capital control. The model calibrated by China＇ s data shows that the inflation is forced to rise under the slow adjustment of RMB exchange rate, which may be a factor which raises the fluctuation of China＇ s economy after the reformation of RMB exchange rate in 2005.