美国调控政策全面扩张情景下的经济复苏前景

Prospects of Economy Recovery under the Situation of the Overall Expansion of American Regulatory Policies

在美国调控政策全面扩张的情况下,2011年美国经济增速仍将回调,2012年以后将恢复较快增长。美国第二轮量化宽松政策会减少赤字规模,对经济恢复较快增长将起到一定的积极作用,但也会加快CPI上涨幅度,加速房地产市场的再度泡沫化进程,导致2015年美国经济出现较为严重的通货膨胀现象,房地产市场也会再度严重泡沫化。2010年以后美国财政赤字规模不断扩大,美国政府将面临恢复经济较快增长与控制财政赤字的两难选择。

Under the situation of the overall expansioin of American regulatory policies,the U.S.economic growth will pull back in 2011,while it will proceed to grow fast after 2012.The second round of quantitative easing will decrease the scale of American deficit and play certain active role in economic recovery,but will also quicken the rise of American CPI and accelerate the bubbling of American real estate market,leading to serious economic inflation in 2015 with serious bubbling of real estate market.After 2010,the American financial deficit continue to expand,the U.S.government is faced with a dillemma between fast economic growth and controlling financial deficit.