摘要
基于中国1978-2008年31个省市的动态面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法,分别考察了传统的菲利普斯曲线、新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线和混合菲利普斯曲线在中国的适用性及稳健性。结果表明三种类型的菲利普斯曲线在中国省际动态面板数据意义上都是成立的,且都是稳健的。政策含义是,政策制定需高度重视人们对通货膨胀率的前瞻性预期。
Based on the dynamic panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2008, this paper analyzes the applicability and stability of the traditional Phillips curve, New-Keynesian Phillips curve and hybrid Phillips curve in China with the System GMM method. The results indicate that these three kinds of Phillips curves are stable and their meanings on China＇s provincial dynamic panel data are established. The policy indication is that when framing policies close attention should be paid to the public expectation of inflation rate.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期12-21,共10页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
