技术进步中生产要素产出弹性关系假说及其检验

On the Hypothesis of Output Elasticity in Production Factors along Technological Advances and Its Verification

本研究提出了一个生产要素产出弹性关系假说,即在技术中性条件下,管理要素的产出弹性与劳动要素的产出弹性成正比,与资本要素的产出弹性成反比。通过构建自变量包括资本、劳动和管理要素的简单宏观生产模型,理论上证明了上述假说,经验上利用1970-2006年美国的时间序列数据和OECD七国面板数据也较好验证了假说。这种理论假说的分析和研究结果为我国继续回到经济快速增长的轨道而进行的政策选择空间提供了一个方向性指导。

This study presents a hypothesis of output elasticity in production factors, i.e. under neutral technological conditions, the output elasticity of the management factors is in a positive proportion to the output elasticity of the labor factor, while in a negative proportion to the output elasticity of the capital factors. By setting up a simple macro-production model with self-variables, including capital, labor and management elements, the above-mentioned hypothesis is proved in theory. The hypothesis is also well verified with American time series data from 1970 to 2006 and the panel data of the seven OECD countries in experience. The analysis and research results of the theoretical hypothesis can provide a directional guide for China＇s policy selection when returning to its track of rapid economic growth.