城市成长管理政策与房地产市场波动

POLICIES ON URBAN GROWTH MANAGEMENT AND PRICE FLUCTUATION OF REAL ESTATE MARKET

房地产市场正在面临的问题并非仅源于金融体制,城市成长管理政策的执行也可能是引发问题的原因之一。在房地产市场的上升期和下降期,成长管理政策都可能通过一定的传导、放大机制进一步加剧房地产市场的震荡。文章研究分析了市场上升期和下降期成长管理政策对房地产市场波动的影响机制,并以美国近期房地产市场数据进行了校验。发现执行成长管理政策的地区房地产市场的泡沫更大,波动性更强,房地产市场受到危机影响的程度也越大。

The problems of the real estate market not only come from the financial system,but also from the policies based on urban growth management.The housing price may be shocked more sharply by the urban growth management.This paper firstly analyses the mechanism of the urban growth management impacting on the price fluctuation of the real estate market,dividing the whole changing process into the blooming and the declining periods,and then verifies the results using the data from the U.S.The conclusion is that the price bubble is bigger in areas executing the urban growth management than areas not executing the same policy.