近年来我国货币政策分析及2011年走势预测

Our Country Monetary Policy Analysis in Recent Years and Trend Forecast of 2011

本文通过对当前我国经济发展状况分析,认为2011年我国货币政策将处于趋紧的稳健常态。通过对2005年以来我国货币供应状况和货币政策实证分析,揭示出我国货币政策与狭义货币供应量、广义货币供应量、国内生产总值和居民消费价格指数间相互关系,进而提出我国货币政策如何影响国内生产总值和居民消费价格指数变化趋势,并预测2011年趋紧货币政策将延续到下半年,国民经济将在波动中呈现逐步回落之势,下半年通胀压力加大。

After analysis to the current our country economic development condition, this article considered that our country monetary policy will be in the tight steady condition in 2011. Since 2005, after empirical analysis to our country money supply condition and the monetary policy, the article has promulgated our country monetary policy and M1, M2, GDP and CPI the reciprocity, then proposed how our country monetary policy does affect GDP and the CPI change tendency, and forecast that in 2011 the tight monetary policy will continue to the second half of the year, the national economy will drop in the fluctuation gradually, in the second half of the year, the inflation pressure will be enlarged.