“福音”还是“诅咒”——自然资源与经济增长关系理论模型及拓展

Cursing the Blessings——A Theoretical Model of the Relationship between Natural Resources and Economic Growth and an Expansion to the Model

本文研究了国外自然资源与经济增长关系模型。根据发展中国家经济特点,按照资源生命周期理论,构建了新理论模型,动态分析后得出新的结论。自然资源开发初期具有水平效应,资源经济发展形成资源开发福音;自然资源开发实现资金积累,通过培育壮大制造业,可实现可持续发展,形成资源发展的后续"福音";但如果过度依赖自然资源,随着自然资源的枯竭,制造部门不能替代资源部门的增长,将可能出现不同程度的资源"诅咒"现象。

This paper studies the foreign models of the relationship between natural resources and economic growth. A new theoretical model has been established based on the economic characteristics of developing countries. Conclusions have been drawn after a dynamic analysis on the relationship between natural resources and economic growth from the perspective of the resource life cycle. The conclusions are in line with the developing countries in the following ways： At the beginning stage of the development of natural resources, the natural resources have a level effect. At this stage, the resource economy is a gospel A follow - up development can be achieved by fostering and strengthening the manufacturing industries with the fund obtained in the development of natural resources, thus, a subsequent gospel of resource development come into being. However, if an economy depends too excessively on natural resources, with the exhaustion of natural resources and manufacturing industries being unable to substitute the growth of natural resources, there might be a phenomenon of different degrees of resource curse .