现代金融系统的溶解性扩散特征及其监管策略

A Dissolution-Diffusion Character of the Financial System and Financial Regulation Reform

美国次债危机为全世界展现了现代金融系统惊心动魄的一面,经过不断创新发展而来的金融系统其所遵循的规律是否已经悄然发生了改变令人深思。本文通过溶解性扩散模型的建立和分析,揭示了以资产证券化和金融衍生工具为主要特征的现代金融市场的崭新特质:溶解性扩散的系统特征以及系统函数中收益变量与风险变量分别在不同时间赋值的内源机制。同时,以抽象的视角将市场参与者的境况概念化为创造者偏好和观察者困境的外源因素。在这种内源机制和外源因素的相互作用下,市场将形成无法克服的天然缺陷:风险导入的必然性、风险放大的必然性和信息的不完全。市场风险的形成已经无法用传统信息不对称原理作圆满的解释。针对于此,本文提出了全新的监管原理和监管策略。

US sub-prime debt crisis unfolded the stirring aspect of modern financial system.A question calling for deep thought is if the law followed by the system,which evolved after successive innovations,has quietly changed.Based on the establishment and analysis of Dissolving Diffusion model,this paper reveals the completely new characteristics of modern financial market: a dissolving diffusion system and its endogenous mechanism that the assignment of return variable and risk variable would take place in different time.Meanwhile,the market participants'situations are abstracted into two concepts of creator favor and observer difficulty,which are considered as exogenous factors.Under the interaction of endogenous mechanism and exogenous factors,the market forms its insuperable defects: inevitable risk introduction,inevitable risk magnification and insufficient information.Conventional Information Asymmetry theory has not been able to sufficiently explain the causes of market risk.Based on these understandings,this paper proposes new principles and strategies for financial supervision.