基于WEGN模型对我国主要城市气温的模拟和预测

Simulation and Prediction of Chinese Major Cities' Temperature Based on WEGN Model

本文对我国10个主要城市气温指标建立了天气发生器模型,用Fourier分析和时间序列的方法进行建模,用统计模拟的方法分别生成了一年的气温数据,来对当地的气温指标进行了预测。在此基础上,我们对模型进行了改进,通过增加模拟次数,建立了全年日均气温的点估计和区间估计.最后,以三个实例验证了改进模型。

This paper develops the weather generator for 10 major cities＇temperature in China,and models the temperature by the method of Fourier analysis and time series,then provides one-year data with the model developed to forecast the local next year＇s temperature in statistical way.On this basis, in order to improve this model,we increase the simulation times.As a result of it,we finally establish point estimation and interval estimation for the annual average daily temperature.At last,we use three examples to demonstrate the improved model.