聚焦失衡 在不确定中谋求发展——“2011年石油市场形势研讨会”综述之国际篇

Focusing on risk factors while pursuing of development in an uneven recovery——roundup of international topics addressed at a seminar on the 2011 oil market outlook

全球化背景下的经济危机,影响广泛而深刻,加速了全球政治经济格局的调整。在经历了超常规的全球联合救助经济行动之后,世界经济止跌回升,但主要国家复苏步调不一,世界经济前景依然混沌不清。由于量化宽松和低利率的货币政策被普遍采用,世界主要货币之间竞相贬值,汇率争执喋喋不休,贸易保护主义开始抬头,通胀之潮激流暗涌??全球化带来的不平衡问题,反过来开始成为全球化的制约,经济全球化与政治分治化的矛盾日益明显。然而,人类面临的难题远非经济本身。自然资源和生态环境正在成为人类(特别是发展中国家)发展的全面制约,而且日益频发的各类灾害不断"提醒"人类需要整体反思过去的增长模式。在当前新旧格局交替之际,世界充满困难、矛盾和冲突,形势也非常混乱、混沌和多变,表现为各种力量交错发展,大国博弈精彩上演,全球能源市场不断震荡颠实。2010年,国际油价围绕70?85美元/桶反复震荡,涨幅远远落后于再创新高的黄金。在这样的背景下,中国石油学会石油经济专业委员会和《国际石油经济》编辑部于2010年12月8-9日在北京外国专家大厦举办了"2011年石油市场形势研讨会"。本次会议有四个议题,分别是:1)世界经济复苏前景与主要国家宏观政策趋势;2)全球油气上游投资与未来国际石油市场形势;3)"十二五"中国经济及炼油行业发展对石油市场的影响;4)中国成品油市场分析与政策前瞻。14位专家应邀在本届会议上发言,与各方代表共同探讨了"后危机"时代复杂多变的国际形势,以及当前和今后一段时期国内外石油市场发展的趋势和突出特点。本篇将聚焦会议的前两个议题,即国际部分,撷取与会专家的核心观点,与本刊读者分享他们的智慧思想。

The Petroleum Economics Commission of the Chinese Petroleum Society and the editorial department of 'International Petroleum Economics' held a seminar on the oil market outlook for 2011 in Beijing on December 8-9, 2010. Expert participants believed the world economy is facing many risks. The road through uneven global recovery takes many twists and turns. The 2011 world economic outlook is not optimistic. In the context of a global recovery facing great challenges, China’s economy faces its own challenges both internal and external. Internally China faces a middle-income trap. Externally China faces the world’s need to adapt to China’s rise. In the short-term the international oil market will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, while in the medium-term, global oil production capacity will grow faster than demand and thereby put downward pressure on oil prices and, in the long-term, there will be a crude oil supply 'bottleneck'. U.S. dollar credit has expanded for a long time because the dollar doesn’t have an 'anchor'. This casts a shadow over global recovery. The weakened U.S. dollar has triggered a currency war against the RMB. In essence the U.S. wants to fight a smokeless trade war against China. China's oil industry faces the risks inherent in the U.S.-dollar based world monetary system.