基于灰色系统模型的山东省渔业产量增长预测分析

Prediction analysis of fishery yield in Shandong based on grey system model

灰色系统理论在经济、科教、工农业、气象、军事等众多领域都有广泛应用。本文以山东省渔业产业为研究对象,选取利用外资、技术推广投入、新增固定资产、渔船总吨、渔业人口、渔业科研教育投入这个六个影响因素与渔业产值进行灰色关联分析,结果发现,山东省渔业产业仍属于资本密集型产业,资本投入与资产扩张对渔业产值增长的影响较大,而渔业基础研究对产值的贡献率很小。利用灰色预测模型对山东省1995～2009年的水产品总量数据进行预测分析的结果与《山东省渔业振兴规划(2011～2015年)》中提到的预期目标差距也较大。在对实证结果进行充分讨论的基础上,文章最后探讨了在蓝色经济区建设背景下振兴山东渔业产业的几点政策建议。

Grey system theory is widely used in the economic, scientific, educational, industrial, meteorological, military and other fields. In this paper, we focus on the fishing industry in Shandong Province. Through the empirical research on gray relational analysis and short-term forecast, we found that the fishing industry in Shandong Province is still a capital-intensive industry. Capital investment and asset expansion have great effects on the output growth of fishing industry. But the contribution rate of basic fisheries research is very low. The results of grey prediction analysis show that there is a big gap between the results and the targets referred in ＂2011-2015 Revitalization Plan of Shandong Fisheries＂. Finally some policy proposals about fisheries revitalization under the background of constructing blue economic zone were given in this paper.