水产品出口对山东渔业经济贡献的实证分析

Empirical study of aquatic products to economic contribution of fisheries in Shandong province

基于水产品出口依存度,贡献率和拉动度的测算,运用协整分析、回归分析、Granger因果检验对山东水产品出口和渔业经济总产值两者相关关系进行实证分析。从统计分析看,山东水产品出口依存度高于全国水平,近十年水产品出口对渔业经济增长年均贡献率超过百分之百,年均拉动度近百分之五,但渔业经济总量高速增长同时,水产品出口额增长幅度减缓;从计量分析看,水产品出口额与渔业经济总产值存在正向的协整关系,水产品出口拉动作用明显,且在相当一段时间内存在。

On the basis of aquatic export dependence, contribution rate and measure of pulling rate, author has analyzed the correlation between Shandong fisheries economy output and aquatic products export by using co-integration analysis, regression analysis, Granger causality test.. From statistical analysis, Shandong fish export dependence was higher than the national level. In recent ten years, average annual contribution rate that exports of aquatic products to fishery economic growth was more than 100% and average annual pulling rate was near 5%. But after rapid growth of fishery economy, the growth of aquatic products export slowed down. From quantitative analysis, the total aquatic products export value and fishery economy output have positive co-integration relationship and stimulating effect of aquatic products was obviously, and it will exist for a long time.