华中区域LAPS中尺度分析场的检验与评估

Verification and Evaluation of LAPS Analysis Field in Central China

本文利用LAPS融合地面观测资料、探空资料、雷达资料形成中尺度分析场,将该分析场与实况降水、雷达回波、TBB图进行对比,发现LAPS分析场具有中尺度系统的描述能力。设计了融合不同观测资料的试验方案并计算了各种试验方案的均方根误差,定量对比分析了各种资料在LAPS系统中的作用,结果表明LAPS融合所有观测资料后得到的分析场是最优的。分别以两种预报场作AREM模式的初始场进行预报,计算了两种不同初始场预报降水的TS评分,评分结果显示LAPS能有效地改善模式的初始场,提高模式对降水的预报能力。

This paper describes a kind of mesoscale analysis field by use of LAPS（Local Analysis and Prediction System） ingesting surface observation,radiosonde observation,radar reflectivity,and analyzes the LAPS field compared with observed precipitation,radar echo,and TBB.The results indicate that LAPS analysis field has more detailed description of mesoscale system.Various kinds of experiments are designed to ingest various observed data and investigate the effect of these data in LAPS,then the RMS errors of these experiments are calculated.It is shown that the LAPS analysis field which ingested all of the observed data is the best.The model AREM is used to forecast precipitation respectively by two kinds of initial fields,and the TS scores of two forecast fields show that LAPS has good ability to improve the initial field,and then improve the forecast ability of model.