摘要
交通运输是国民经济的基础部门。未来随着国民经济的快速发展和人均收入水平的不断提高,交通运输部门的能源消费量将会以较高的速度增长,在决定我国终端能耗的局面中占据着非常重要的地位。本文应用集合模型方法建立了中国能源服务需求预测模型(Energy service demand projection model,ESDPM),在对未来经济和社会发展进行合理假设的基础上,预测了中国未来一直到2050年的客运和货运周转量以及小汽车保有量,并进行了国家和地区间的比较。结果显示,2005-2050年中国的客运和货运周转量将分别以年均增长率5.9%和5.1%的速度增长,2050年客运和货运周转量将分别达到23.1万亿人.km和74.7万亿t.km。小汽车将随着人均GDP的快速增加呈现出明显的"S"型增长关系,在小汽车拥有率饱和水平选取为0.4时,小汽车保有量将稳定在5.8亿辆左右。
Transportation is one of the main sectors of Chinag economy. With the rapid economic development and per capita income growth, the energy consumption of transportation is expected to grow at a higher rate and take a significant share in the total final energy consumption. The China energy service demand projection model （ESDPM） , is built based on the aggregate model methodology and employed to forecast China＇ s future passenger, freight transport and private cars, on the basis of reasonable assumptions of the future economic and social development. The model shows that China＇ s passenger and freight transport in 2050 will be 23.1 trillion p ~ km and 74.7 trillion t ~ km respectively, with the annual growth rate of 5.9% and 5.1% from 2005 to 2050,while private cars will increase in a ＇ S＇ -shaped curve with the rapid growth of GDP per capita. 580 million is the amount of stablization for cars with assumption of car ownership saturation rate of 0.4.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期71-75,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(编号:2007BAC03A03)
