中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

China's Industrialization Process and Balance of Supply and Demand of Energy Minerals

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题。文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高。然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展。我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向高附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时,有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展。

The equilibrium relations between industrialization and energy demand as well as the strategic approach for resolving the imbalance of supply and demand of energy resources are major issues required to discuss in China＇ s industrialization process. In terms of the verification of co-integration relationship between China＇ s industrialization process and energy demand during 1990 -2008, this paper considers that there shall be a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China＇ s industrialization and energy demand growth, energy demand shall continue to keep increasing, and energy utilization efficiency shall also be continuously improved. However, the dilemma of high energy-consuming structure ＆ inefficient use of energy in heavy industries, and the contradictions between supply and demand of energy are unfavorable to the stable development of balanced supply and demand of energy. China should change the consumption pattern of energy to the pattern conforming to the basic rule of industrialization process, take a new road towards industrialization, limit the development of low value-added industries properly, encourage the industry to shift to high value- added, low-energy consumption, and high-technology industries, effectively use domestic and foreign energy sources in realizing technical progress and innovation of energy development, and establish energy emergency mechanism and other strategic approach to achieve the balanced development between supply and demand of energy in industrialization process.