资本外逃测量方法再探讨:以亚洲国家为例

Measurement of Capital Flight Revisited:An Application to Asian Economies

从外债、进出口伪报等方面改进了广泛用于估计资本外逃的差额法,测算了9个亚洲经济体1980-2007年间资本外逃的规模,针对文献中普遍使用资本外逃所占GDP的比重测度资本外逃规模的做法,认为资本外逃首先造成金融资源的流失,以资本外逃占金融资源(以货币供给量表示)的比重测度资本外逃规模更为合理。据此指标,发现一些金融不发达国家的资本外逃比现有研究所揭示的程度更为严重。同时,尽管资本外逃通常处于休眠状态,一旦因经济环境恶化而被激活,则会造成资本的大量流失。

This paper improves on the widely used residual method in order to estimate the magnitude of capital flight in nine Asian economies over the period of 1980-2007.The paper argues that as capital flight is a drain on financial resources for development,it is more appropriate to be measured against the size of the financial market,which can be proxied by money aggregate,in contrast to the common practice of being measured as a percentage of GDP.Using this more appropriate new measure,we find that capital flight is more severe in some financially underdeveloped countries than what has been suggested previously.It is also found that while capital flight could be a dormant sideshow in benign economic environment,it could have considerable impacts on the availability of financial resources when activated.