奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的灰色预测模型的研究

Research on the First Three Places in Men's Modern Pentathlon of Olympic Using Gray Prediction Model

研究了奥运会男子现代五项前三名成绩的灰色预测模型.将奥运会第16届至第29届男子现代五项前三名成绩数据进行分析处理,采用包络线法和新陈代谢法建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预测了第30届男子现代五项前三名成绩.并对预测结果进行了分析.结果表明:该模型精度较高、预测误差小,预测结果可为我国体育决策部门、教练和运动员提供参考.

This paper discusses the gray prediction model on first three place in men＇s Modern Pentathlon of Olympic.In this paper the data from the 20th Olympic Games to the 29th Olympic Games is analysed,and At the same time Envelope Method and Metabolic Method to establish GM（1,1） Gray prediction model is used,And Predicted the 30th session of the top three men＇s modern pentathlon results.for predicted results are analyzed.The results showed that： The model has high precision,prediction error,prediction for China＇s sports policy-making departments,coaches and athletes to provide reference.