资本约束对银行信贷扩张的影响:基于中国的实证分析(1998-2009)——兼论当前宏观调控的一种新工具

The Infection of Capital Constraint to Credit Expansion:an Empirical Analysis Based on China(1998-2009)——And a Research on a New Tool of Macro-control

本文从商业银行信贷井喷与大量融资要求的现象出发,以信贷可得性和资本约束为视角,提出两个假说:资本充足率与信贷扩张正相关,资本充足率越高,信贷扩张越快;商业银行的资本充足率具有顺周期特征。基于1998-2009年我国银行业的数据,本文采用动态面板数据方法验证了两个假说,并提出三点政策主张:强化宏观审慎监管意识,建立逆周期的资本监管制度;将资本充足率纳入宏观调控工具体系;强化资本质量要求。

From the phenomenon of blowout of credit and a large number of financing requirements,the paper puts forward two hypotheses on the availability of credit and capital constraints： there is a positive relation between capital adequacy ratio and credit expansion,the higher capital adequacy ratiois,the sooner the credit expansionis;capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks is procyclical.Based on 1998-2009 data from China＇s banking sector,the paper uses dynamic panel data to validate two hypotheses,and puts forward three policy proposals： strengthening the consciousness of macro-prudential regulation to establish counter-cyclical capital regulations;using capital adequacy ratio as a macro-control tool system;and strengthening requirements of capital quality.