不确定性与投资:实物期权还是冒险行为

Uncertainty and Investment:Real Option or Risk Taking

文章依据公司不确定性与投资关系的实物期权理论与代理理论,从公司债务期限结构、投资不可逆性、公司成长性、财务困境和股权激励五个维度,提出风险投资关系及其影响因素的检验命题,并利用中国上市公司数据分析得到结果。研究结果表明,中国民营上市公司存在较强的投资风险规避倾向,但这种关系在存在财务困境和股权激励的公司表现减弱。国有上市公司存在相似的现象但显著性相对不明显。

Based on the company＇s real options and agency theory,the paper focuses on the relation between uncertainty and investment.From dimensions of debt maturity structure,investment irreversibility,companys＇ growth,financial distress and equity incentive,it develops the propositions that show relationships between risk and investment,and determinants of investment risk sensitivity coefficient.With the data in Chinese listed companies,it finds out some empirical results which show that there is a strong tendency to risk aversion of investment in Chinese private listed companies,but such a relation is not obvious in the company of financial distress or incentive stock options.The similar phenomenon exists in the state-owned listed companies,but the significance is not obvious.