不同温室气体排放情景下未来中国地面气温变化特征

Future surface air temperature changes in China under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios

采用20多个参与政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的全球气候模式,在20世纪气候模拟试验和SRES B1、A1B和A23种排放情景下进行数值集合分析,结果表明未来中国大陆的气温变化有着明显的时间和空间差异.21世纪,中国大陆年平均气温呈显著升高趋势,至2099年平均增温范围为2.5～4.9℃,高于全球平均值.冬季升温明显高于其他季节,年较差呈减小趋势.21世纪前期,变暖预估值受排放情景假设或模式敏感性的影响较小,不同排放情景和不同模式之间的预估结果一致,中国大陆平均增温范围为0.88～0.92℃,21世纪中期以后这种差异逐渐增大,增暖范围为2.44～4.28℃.相对于1980-1999年平均气候场,中国大陆平均升温值在20世纪50年代前后达到2℃,此后,A1B及A2情景下中国大陆气温快速升高,在21世纪60年代末达到或超过3℃,但区域差异明显,升温值达2℃的时间由北至南在不同排放情景下相差10～30a,东北、西北地区将成为未来受气温升高影响最为敏感的地区.

Based on IPCC AR4 outputs simulated by multi-model for 20th century and future projection under SRES B1,A1B and A2 green emission scenarios,the surface air temperature changes in the 21st century are analyzed.It is revealed that the surface temperature presents different spatial and temporal features over China.Annual mean temperature will rise by 2.5-4.9 ℃ at the end of the 21st century under 3 Scenarios,and the enhancement magnitude is larger than global mean.In addition,the warming magnitude in winter will be larger than in the other seasons,the annual range of temperature is expected to decrease in the future.The projection results are consistent between the different emission scenarios and models in the first half of the 21st century,with the warming magnitude being 0.88-0.92 ℃.However,the projected temperature becomes more sensitive to the scenarios and models since mid of the 21st century.By the end of the 21st century,the temperature will increase by about 2.44-4.28 ℃.Relative to 1980—1999,annual mean temperature over China will rise by 2 ℃ around 2050,then the temperature will increase more quickly under SRES A1B and A2 scenarios and reach or exceed 3 ℃ at the end of 2060s.The temperature changes differently with regions,and the year of temperature rise above 2 ℃ in Southern regions will be later for about 10-30 years than that in Northern regions over China.Affected by the rising temperature,Northeast China and Northwest China will be the most sensitive regions in the future.