基于灰色模型的某型装备可靠性相关参数预估

Pre-evaluation of Reliability Parameter of Certain Equipment with Gray Model

某型装备的无故障时间和故障间隔时间是系统重要的可靠性参数,装备的此类数据样本较少,而无故障时间基本服从指数分布,采用灰色模型建模比较合适。在对原始可靠性数据应用动态数据更新的方法进行重新构建的基础上,建立了基于动态数据更新的无故障时间和故障间隔时间预估模型。通过比较不同模型精度检验方法的评价结果,验证了该方法具备较高的预估精度,对模型更具实际应用意义的模型外推精度预估分析表明,该方法具有一定的应用价值。

The failure and running time of certain equipment are important reliability parameter of the system.Since the data in the field is less,and the time between failures is subject to exponential distribution,therefore it is suitable for modeling by gray model.Based on reconstruction on the method of dynamic data update of original reliability,it was built to the pre-evaluation model of fault-free time and fault interval time on the basis of dynamic data update.By means of comparing the pre-evaluation result of precision test method for different method,it verified that the method owned higher estimate precision.It shows to the estimate analysis of model extrapolating precision that it has better applicable value in the relative field.