流行性乙型脑炎预警指标体系研究

Study on indicator system for early-warning of Japanese encephalitis

目的建立流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)预警指标体系。方法首先采用文献调研和专家会议法拟订乙脑预警指标体系初始框架和指标,然后应用德尔菲法确定预警指标和指标权重。结果建立了包括人群免疫水平、传播媒介、贮存宿主、社会因素及病例相关指标的5项一级预警指标及对应的10个二级预警指标。结论建立了适用于中国乙脑防控的预警指标体系,但需要利用历史疫情对该指标体系的信度和效度进行评价,并在实际应用中进一步完善。

Objective To develop the indicator system for early warning of Japanese encephalitis. Methods The literature review and the experts meeting method were used to set the initial frame work and indicators first, then Delphi method was used to screen indicators and determine the weighting coefficient. Results Five first-class and 10 second- class indicators involved in immune status of population to Japanese encephalitis infection, transmission vector, reservoir host, social environment, and case-related indicators were set up for the early warning of Japanese encephalitis. Conclusion The indicator system for early warning of Japanese encephalitis was set up in China, but the reliability and validity need to be evaluated by using historical epidemic data of Japanese encephalitis.