美国核战争计划在新世纪的接续与再定位

The US Nuclear War Plan:Continuity and Changes in the New Century

自冷战初期起,美国军方一直维持并发展一个全面的核战争计划。这个名为"统一作战行动计划"的核战争计划因其打击目标的单一性和过度的杀伤性而备受争议,更难以适应后冷战时代美国面临的新的国家安全威胁。九一一事件后,"统一作战行动计划"被更名为"8044作战计划",并于布什政府末期最终修订为"8010-08作战计划"。这一名为"战略威慑与全球打击"的新作战计划,除了维持核战略威慑这一传统任务外,根据新时期美国对威胁来源的重新判断,增加了针对不同目标的多种常规打击选项,实现了真正意义上的全球打击战略。美国战略作战计划从"统一作战行动计划"到"8010-08作战计划"的演变,体现了美国对核力量应用政策的重大调整,并且这种调整仍在进行中。美国战略作战计划制定过程中的固有惯性和不变因素,加之奥巴马政府已经做出的核政策声明,美国新的核应用政策由此显露端倪。鉴于中、俄战略核力量的存在,美国或许会加强与中、俄的军控协商,但新作战计划不会单方面放弃战略威慑的责任;核武器在战略作战计划中的作用会减弱,但核武器应用的不确定性仍然存在;美国战略作战计划的打击目标会更为广泛。

Since the early Cold War,the American military has maintained and developed a comprehensive nuclear war plan.That plan,the Single Integrated Operational Plan(SIOP)was seriously criticized for its gross demonstration of overkill due to its single targeting objective.Furthermore,it could not adjust to the new national security threats facing the United States in the post-Cold War period.After September 11,SIOP was renamed 'OPLAN 8044' by the Bush administration and revised to 'OPLAN 8010-08' at the end of his administration,which named Strategic Deterrence and Global Strike.This historical development of the US strategic war plan demonstrates the great changes in the US nuclear employment policy,still in process.The Obama administration's nuclear employment policy could be understood as the continuity of the US strategic war plan.This paper posits that the Obama administration,given the nuclear capability of Russia and China,might strengthen the arms control negotiation with these countries,but will not unilaterally abandon the strategic deterrence role in its new war plan.Moreover,although the Obama administration may gradually limit the role of nuclear weapons in the US war plan,the uncertainty of nuclear employment still exists and the plan's targeting objectives may even expand.