财务危机预警研究:存在问题与框架重构

Problems on Research of Predicting Financial Distress and Framework Reconstructure

现有财务危机预警成果没有表现出其能有效地服务于现实的能力,从而使人们产生对财务危机是否可以预警的信任危机。本文围绕财务危机预警的最基本目的——"预",分析了现有预警研究中存在的主要问题,并结合经济所呈现出的一些新的特点,如企业共生现象、金融工具的大量使用,从经济动力学的角度,提出了嵌入利益相关者行为的、以影响企业财务状况的两种基本力量为主要分析对象的财务危机预警框架和面向未来的敏感性分析方法。从理论上讲,新的框架可以把现有框架未予考虑的大量相关信息纳入进来,从而减少"伪危机"和"伪健康"现象,增强财务危机预测的针对性和准确性。

Present research on predicting financial distress doesn't fit the reality well and people have doubted whether early warning can be relied on.This paper focuses on the basic purpose of financial distress prediction,i.e,the capability to predict,analyses the principal problems in the present early warning research and puts forth a new framework embedded stake-holder's behavior in which analyzing the two basic driving factors affecting enterprises' financial status is the main approach.Theoretically,pseudo financial distress and pseudo non-financial distress will decrease and predicting accuracy will be improved by including more relevant information into the new framework.