宏观经济压力及反倾销报复——欧盟对华反倾销原因的再探索

The Macroeconomic and Retaliation Factor Analysis on Anti-dumping Between EU and China

随着中欧经贸关系的发展,贸易摩擦接踵而至。本文否定欧盟对华反倾销是源于市场竞争的一般认识,认为宏观经济压力和反倾销报复才是欧盟反倾销的最终动因,其中的GDP增长率、失业率、汇率、贸易逆差以及反倾销报复是欧盟对华反倾销中的稳定性因素,因而对华反倾销已成为欧盟在经济衰退、失业率增加、汇率波动、进口增长、国际经济危机等困难时期向我国转移经济压力的渠道,而并非为维护市场秩序所进行的正常的市场修正行为。

The development of economic and trade relations is followed by the trade friction. After negating the general understanding that the EU anti-dumping is based on market competition, the article concludes that macroeconomic stress is the ultimate EU anti-dumping motives. Then using quantity method, this paper finds that the GDP growth, unemployment, trade deficit,exchange rate and the anti-dumping retaliation have long-term effects on EU anti-dumping. And finally the paper points out that anti-dumping has become the channels by which the European Union transfers its domestic economic pressure in recession, e. g. the increasing unemployment rate, growing import, exchange rate fluctuations and international economic crisis, to China, rather than the correction behavior to maintain the market order.