基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析

Land use scenario analyses by based on system dynamic model and CLUE-S model at regional scale:A case study of Ganzhou district of Zhangye city

近年来，学者们基于不同研究需要开发了很多土地利用变化／覆盖（LUCC）模型。但迄今没有一个单独的模型可在不同时空尺度上揭示所有土地利用变化的关键过程。本文尝试开发一种集成SD模型与CLUE—S模型的建模方法，用以弥补已有LUCC模型缺陷，并将其应用于张掖市甘州区的土地利用情景分析中，得到的LUCC模拟结果可为该区土地利用规划和环境管理提供一定的决策支持，同时为基于不同LUCC下垫面的水文过程情景分析提供源数据。结论如下：（1）开发了一个能够反映人类活动影响的SD模型，用于预测2000～2035年间不同土地利用类型在不同社会经济情景下的总需求量。（2）利用CLUE-S模型实现了土地利用需求驱动下的土地利用变化过程的空间表现。2000年土地利用模拟图的Kappa值为0．86，2005年的Kappa值为0．81，集成模型的整体精度较高，500m×500m的空间格网分析尺度适合研究区。（3）分析该集成建模优势及不足，为后续工作做好铺垫。

Recently, scientists have developed different models of land use/cover change （LUCC） depending on their objectives and background. However, no single model is able to capture all of key processes essential to explore land use change at different scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and impacts. In this paper, we would like to make our efforts to develop an approach in combination of SD model and CLUE-S model to deal with some shortcomings of the existing LUCC models and to properly address the processes at different scales that give rise to the land use dynamics. The approach presented in this study will be helpful to understand the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and managements, and also can be used as data source in scenario analysis of different hydrological processes based on different underlying surfaces of LUCC. The objectives of the study are： （1） to develop an SD model to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during the period 2000-2035, （2） to improve the characterization and presentation of the land use change processes by developing a CLUE-S model that will transfer and allocate land demands from SD model to spatially explicit land use patterns at a finer spatial scale （at 500 m resolution in our study）, and the Kappa value of the land use map simulation in 2000 is 0.86 and the Kappa value is 0.81 in 2005, and （3） to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of combining and integrating the current land use change models. The further objective of this study is to find the key driving factors of LUCC （e. g. , human factors, including social capital, different cultural types and so on）, and these factors should he represented as different spatial maps and integrated into the model analysis to improve land use change modeling and projection.