技术扩散、内生技术转化与中国经济波动——一个动态随机一般均衡模型

The Technology Diffusion,the Endogenous Technical Transformation and China's Economic Fluctuation

本文在动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）的理论框架下建立了一个内生R＆D投入与技术转化模型，以研究技术扩散对我国经济波动的影响。基于我国1989-2008年的年度数据对模型进行的校准与数值模拟表明，该模型能较好地拟合现实经济波动，能解释现实数据中83．3％的经济波动。脉冲响应分析与方差分解结果显示，技术扩散冲击通过企业R＆D投入的内生技术转化，在模型中能解释29．32％的相对经济波动。同时，相对于中性技术冲击而言，技术扩散冲击在长期中使产出和技术存量处在更高的均衡水平上。上述证据表明，技术扩散和R＆D投入是我国经济发展不可忽视的重要影响因素。

Within the theoretic framework of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,we have,in this article,constructed a model of the endogenous R&D investment and technical transformation to study the impact of technology diffusion on the economic fluctuation in China.The calibration of the annul data of 1989 to 2008 to the model and the numeral stimulation indicate that our model can better imitate the real economic fluctuation,and can account for 83.3% of the economic fluctuation in the real data.The results of the impulse effect analysis and the variance resolution show that the shock on the technology diffusion in this model,can,through the intrinsic technical transformation,can explain 29.32 percent of the relative economic fluctuation.Compared with the neutral technological shock,the shock on the technology diffusion leads to a higher level of the equilibrium of output and technical stock in the long run.All the evidences mentioned above indicate that the technology diffusion and R&D investment have a significant effect on China's economic growth.