河南省能源消费碳排放的因素分解及减排途径

Decomposition analysis and reduction approaches of carbon emissions for energy consumption in Henan province

采用国家发改委能源研究所提供的碳排放模型,计算了1995～2009年间河南省能源碳排放量。根据LDMI因素分解方法,对河南省人均碳排放变化进行因素分解,得出以下结论:①河南省能源碳排放量呈现逐年增长态势,2002年后呈现指数增长,随着节能减排政策的落实,2007年后增速变缓;②河南省碳排放强度在1995～2002年间呈下降态势,但是2002～2004年间反弹急剧攀升,2004年后再次呈现回落态势;③经济发展是促进河南人均碳排放增加的主要动力,能源效率是拟制碳排放的主要因素,能源结构对河南人均碳排放变化的作用不明显。研究表明,若仅依赖能源效率的提高,难以抑制经济发展引起的河南人均碳排放增加。因此,需要改善能源结构,发挥能源结构改变对河南人均碳排放的抑制作用。

Using the calculation model and carbon emission coefficients adopted by Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission（2003）,the amount of carbon emissions due to energy consumption in Henan Province were calculated from 1995 to 2009.Based the LMDI method,the changes of aggregated CO2 were analyzed.The results show that the carbon emissions increased year by year,and the growth rate of carbon emissions had gotten quickly since 2002,but,it become slowly after 2007 with implementing the policy of energy saving and emission reduction.The carbon intensity in Henan was lowed during 1995-2002,increased in 2002-2004 and cut again after 2004.Economic growth was the main factor for the increase the carbon emission per capita,energy efficiency was the main factor to decrease,and energy mix was the little factor.To cut carbon emissions,optimize energy mix and improving energy efficiency are the both important approaches.