低碳经济发展的驱动因素研究——以浙江省为例

On Driving Factors of Low Carbon Economy Development Based on Zhejiang Province

本文从人口规模、经济发展水平、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放量、能源消费结构、产业结构、城市化、国际贸易分工等方面探讨了低碳经济发展的主要驱动因素,对STIRPAT模型进行了扩展,利用1990~2008年浙江省的统计数据,对低碳经济发展的驱动因素及其贡献率进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：人均GDP、能源强度、人口规模、单位能耗碳排放量和能源消费结构对碳排放总量有显著正向影响,其中人均实际GDP的影响最大,能源强度的影响较大,人口规模和单位能耗碳排放量的影响较小,能源消费结构的影响最小,而产业结构、城市化水平、国际贸易分工对碳排放总量的影响不显著;人均实际GDP持续增长是碳排放增长的最大正向驱动因素,对碳排放增长的贡献率最大,能源强度变动是碳排放增长的最大负向驱动因素,能源强度变动对碳排放增长具有一定的抑制作用。

Based on population,economy development level,energy strength,carbon footprint of per energy consumption rate,energy consumption structure,industrial structure,urbanization and division of cross-border trade,the article discusses the main driving factors of low carbon economic development.Using statistical data of Zhejiang province from 1990 to 2008,it extends the model of STIRPAT to make an empirical analysis of driving factors and contribution rate of low carbon economic development.The results are as follows.Per capita GDP,energy strength,population,carbon footprint of energy consumption rate and energy consumption structure have a significant positive effect on carbon emission.Results indicate that among these the effect of per capita GDP is the greatest,the next is energy strength,thirdly population and that energy consumption rate and energy consumption structure the smallest,while industrial structure,urbanization and division of cross-border trade have no significant effect.Sustainable of per capita GDP contributed the most to the growth in carbon emissions and is the biggest positive driver.The change in energy intensity is the maximum negative driving factor of carbon emissions and has certain inhibiting effect on it.Finally,the relative policy suggestions are proposed based on the empirical result.