石油库储罐区池火灾多米诺效应研究

Domino Effect Caused by Pool Fire in Petroleum Storage Tank District

依据多米诺效应的特点,从多米诺效应发生的机制,阐述了石油库储罐区池火灾多米诺效应的分析过程。首先辨识石油库储罐区多米诺效应的事故场景,针对场景的复杂性和事故后果的严重性,运用烃类池火灾事故后果定量分析模型和概率分析对池火灾事故场景进行分析;然后根据初始事故的影响,运用设备损坏概率模型计算二次目标设备的损坏概率和场景后果;最后结合具体实例对石油库储罐区池火灾进行多米诺效应分析。通过石油库储罐区池火灾事故多米诺效应评价,得出石油库储罐区事故的升级因素和导致事故扩大的途径,并指出相应的多米诺效应控制措施,从而可以有针对性地采取相应的预防措施,预防池火灾事故多米诺效应,降低次生灾害的发生率,提高石油库储罐区的本质安全,为现行《石油库设计规范》的优化提供科学的依据。

This paper presents a study of Domino effects,including the mechanism and characteristics.The Domino effect is a complex phenomenon,in which severe accidents may take place in chains.For example,in a petroleum storage tank,one accident may cause a secondary accident in other facility nearby.In this paper,the mathematical models of pool fire and the probability analysis are used for the assessment,including the vulnerability assessment of the consequence.The risk of the Domino effect is determined by using the quantitative risk analyses technique suggested in this paper.The probabilities of Domino events and their consequences are calculated.A systematic procedure for the quantitative assessment of risk caused by Domino effects is proposed for the risk analysis of petroleum storage pool fire accidents.The factors and the manners of the propagation and enhancement of the accident are analyzed by assessing the risk caused by Domino effect of pool fire.Safety measures to avoid Domino effect is thus suggested.This method can predict the secondary accident,the probability of the accident and the consequence.Therefore,the corresponding preventive measures can be taken so as to prevent Domino effect,reduce the probability of secondary disaster and enhance the inherent safety of the petroleum storage tank.