基于DEA无效改进的南通市建设用地结构预测

Prediction of the Construction Land Structure Based on an Improved DEA Method: A Case Study of Nantong City

不同的经济社会发展水平需要不同的建设用地结构,只有以适应经济社会发展水平的建设用地规模作基数进行预测,才可能确保规划期内的建设用地供应规模不会超量,有利于控制建设用地规模的急速膨胀,促进建设用地的节约集约利用,保护耕地。本文采用南通市1996年-2008年土地利用变更调查数据及相关经济数据,运用数据包络分析法和灰色系统预测法,对南通市历年建设用地利用有效性进行分析,同时在对DEA表现相对无效的样本进行修正的基础上预测南通市2010和2020年建设用地结构规模。结论如下:①1996年-2005年11年间,有5年建设用地投入产出呈DEA相对无效,其余6年建设用地投入产出呈DEA相对有效;②至2020年,南通市建设用地总规模仍不断扩大,但各类建设用地变化趋势不同;③以进行DEA相对无效改进后的序列为基数预测的各类建设用地规模、年均变速均小于以原始序列为基数所预测的建设用地规模及变速。

A certain level of economic development needs a certain structure and scale of construction land. Only based on the realistic economic development can the prediction of the structure and scale of construction land be reasonable. Consequently, unreasonably expanding of the scale of construction land would be restrained. The use of construction land would become intensive in the future, which would be beneficial to protecting cultivated land. However, most of published studies regarding the prediction of the demand for land seem to fall short of examining the efficiency of construction land supply to economic development. Because of only depending on historical data of land use, the scale of construction land in the future would be overestimated. In this study, we projected the scale and demand of construction land in Nantong City, Jiangsu Province. Data about construction land were obtained from an investigation into the alternative land use in Nantong City during the period 1996-2008. Economic data were obtained from Nantong Statistical Yearbook from 1996 to 2008. First, we used the method of DEA to analyze the efficiency of the construction land structure to the level of economic development. Second, we improved the data that were considered invalid by an improved formula of DEA. Third, we used the improved array to project the structure and scale of construction land in 2010 and 2020 by the method of GM （1, 1）. It can be concluded that 1） from 1996 to 2008, there were 5 years （i.e., 1998, 1999, 2004, 2005, and 2008） that the efficiency of construction land was essentially invalid; 2） the overall scale of construction land will continue to expand until 2020, but the alternative tendency of each type of construction land varies to certain degrees. The quantity of urban industrial land and transportation-water-conservation land will increase progressively, whereas the quantity of land and other construction land in rural residential areas will probably decrease; and 3） the scale and yearly average rate of construction land predicted with the improved array are smaller than that predicted with the original data.