城市土地市场调控的实证分析——以武汉市为例

An Empirical Analysis of Urban Land Market Regulation: A Case of Wuhan City

本文运用结构方程模型对我国武汉市土地市场的调控进行实证分析,以"供给控制""、需求引导"和"价格调节"为外生潜变量,"城市土地市场调控"为内生潜变量,分别采用不同的指标(观测变量)进行测度。研究发现,供给控制与需求引导之间的相互影响显著,需求引导与价格调节之间的相互影响次之,供给控制与价格调节之间的相互影响相对较弱;三者对城市土地市场调控作出不同解释,其中供给控制的解释力最强。进而得出结论:2000年-2008年,武汉市通过对城市土地市场的供给控制、需求引导和价格调节,使供需基本平衡、供给结构趋于合理、地价和房价稳步上升,保证了国民经济发展的需要和市场的良好运行,其中供给控制的刚性效果明显,需求引导、价格调节亦凸显出配置资源的基础性作用,三者相互制约、相互影响,并在不同程度上决定着城市土地市场调控的运行。

The purpose of this study was to empirically analyze regulation of the urban land market in China by taking Wuhan City in Hubei Province as a case. A method of structural equation modeling is employed which includes an initial model and a coefficient model. This method treats supply control, demand guiding, and price adjustment as exogenous latent variables, and treats urban land market regulation as an endogenous latent variable. Both exogenous latent variables and endogenous latent variable are measured by their respective indicators which are also called manifest variables. The idea of this research lies in exploring the relationship between exogenous latent variables and endogenous latent variable, and the relationship between latent variables and manifest variables. Fitted values and path coefficients can be derived by running the model, based on which we judged the relationship between the different variables and the situation of regulation in Wuhan’s urban land market. Findings of this study could be drawn as follows： 1） the interaction between supply control and demand guiding was most significant; 2） the interaction between demand guiding and price adjustment was less significant; and 3） the interaction between supply control and price adjustment was relatively weak. Such three exogenous latent variables showed varying influences on urban land market regulation. Among them supply control had the strongest explanatory power. It is further concluded that Wuhan City made great achievements in urban land market regulation from 2000 to 2008. At the same time, supply control and demand guiding as well as price adjustment played a significant role in the regulation of Wuhan’s urban land market. Through making these efforts, regulation of Wuhan’s urban land market has achieved improvements： 1） realizing a basic balance between supply and demand; 2） optimizing the structure of supply; and 3） maintaining steadily rising of land price and housing price. All of these practices ensured reasonable requirements of national economic development and a good running of Wuhan’s urban land market. In such three regulating modes, the rigidity effect of supply control seemed to be obvious, while demand guiding and price adjustment highlighted the basic role in allocating resources. It is generalized that supply control and demand guiding as well as price adjustment mutually restrained and influenced, then jointly determining the regulation of the urban land market. At last, we put forward some suggestions such as establishing a monitoring system to enhance the regulatory capacity, applying diversified policies to enhance the regulatory force, and adjusting the market order to consolidate the regulatory platform.