银行信贷首付约束与中国房地产价格研究

Research on the Importance of Down Payment for China's Housing Prices

本文引入银行信贷的首付约束,建立了带有房地产部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,为分析首付约束与房地产价格关系提供了一个可操作的框架。通过和实际经济比较表明,构建的模型对中国经济和房地产价格波动有较好的解释力。本文得到了首付约束冲击对房地产价格的动态影响过程,研究证实首付约束的正向冲击不仅抬高了房地产价格,而且冲击的持久性更强;同时首付约束的正向冲击还放大了房地产价格对货币政策冲击和产出冲击的脉冲响应。

We study the dynamic relationship between housing prices and down payment,by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model involving housing sectors and down payments.By comparison,the model built in this paper well explains the real economy and housing prices in China.We shape the dynamic effect of down payments on housing prices.We find that the positive shock of down payments raises housing prices and the effect endures much longer than that of the monetary shock.We find that the shock of down payments also amplifies the effects of the monetary shock and the output shock on housing prices.