构建农村物流体系的动力学机理研究

Research on Dynamics Mechanism of Constructing Rural Logistics System

农村物流系统是一个多变量、多重反馈、复杂多变的大系统,一般分析方法很难较好地对物流系统各组成因素之间的动态关系进行描述。本文采用系统动力学方法研究农村物流体系并构建模型。研究表明,农村物流体系的构建不仅受农村经济的制约,还受农村物流体系自身物流供给能力的影响。农村物流体系构建不仅要考虑当前的资源状况和经济水平,还要从动态角度进行系统分析,遵循以物流需求决定物流体系规模的原则。如果忽视物流需求预测而盲目构建农村物流体系,会导致农村物流供需失衡与资源浪费。要用动态的眼光规划并建设农村物流体系,使农村物流供给能力与物流需求达到动态平衡。农村物流需求预测不仅要考虑农村经济发展水平,还要考虑体系构建对需求的吸引作用,要经过多次模拟,对需求进行较为长远的预测,从而确定适宜的农村物流体系规模。

Rural logistics system is of multi-variable,multi-feedback,and large complex property;the general analysis may not express its complexity and the dynamic relationship among these factors.The model of rural logistics system is built applying system dynamics.The results show that the construction of rural logistics system is constrained not only by rural economy,but also by its own capacity for logistics.We should not only consider the current resource situation in rural areas and economic levels,but also analysis its dynamic perspective,and follow the principles of the scale of the logistics system subjected to logistics demand.The construction of rural logistics system without the forecast of logistic demand will lead to the imbalance between rural logistic supply and demand and the waste of resources.We should plan and construct in the view of dynamics and promote the dynamic balance between rural logistic capacity and demand.While forecasting rural logistic demand,we should not only consider the level of rural economic development,but also the role rural logistics system play in stimulating demand;we should forecast with the help of multi-simulation to determine the appropriate scale of rural logistics system.