中国生态环境可承载的煤炭产能研究

Study on coal production capacity concordant to the ecological environment in China

针对13个大型煤炭基地,从土地、水资源2个主因素,对生态环境约束下产能增长区煤炭开采规模进行了评估。认为：未来30-50年内,不考虑新增可采资源的前提下,生态约束条件下的我国煤炭年开采规模约为38.27亿t;水生态环境成为制约产能增长区（除云贵和新疆）煤炭开采规模的临界约束;采煤土地塌陷约束在部分基地表现得比较突出。

On the basis the case in 13 large-scaled coal bases,the author of this paper assesses the coal mining scale in areas with production capacity growth under the constraint of ecological environment from two major factors,land and water.It is proposed in the paper that,regardless of the increased recoverable resources,the coal mining scale under the constraint of ecological environment in China will be about 3.827 billion ton in the next 30~50 years.The water ecological environment is the critical constraint for the mining scale in the areas with production capacity growth,and the constraint of subsidence due to coal mining will be more serious in parts of the coal bases.