资本体现式技术进步及其对经济增长的贡献率(1981-2007)

Capital-embodied Technological Progress and Its Contribution to Economic Growth:1981-2007

将资本分为建筑资本和设备资本两类,利用内生经济增长模型阐释资本体现式技术进步对经济增长的作用,并利用资本质量指数调整设备资本存量,考察资本即期服务效率调整后的资本体现式技术进步对经济增长的贡献率,结果显示:设备资本投资中的体现式技术进步年均增长率为4.78%,对经济增长的贡献率为10.6%,占资本贡献的14.8%。技术进步贡献呈阶段性变化,且不同类型技术进步贡献出现分化。相对于20世纪80年代,90年代后资本体现式技术进步贡献呈平缓下降趋势,而中性技术进步贡献呈现先降后升的V型变化特征,但降幅大、升幅小。因此若不从根本上扭转技术进步贡献的下降趋势,经济高增长将无法长期持续。

This paper categorizes capital into structure capital and equipment capital and uses the endogenous economic growth model to illustrate the role of capital-embodied technological progress in economic growth.In addition,it adopts the capital quality index to adjust equipment capital stocks in order to examine the contribution to economic growth of capital-embodied technological progress after current capital efficiency is adjusted.The results show that embodied technological progress in equipment capital has an annual growth rate of 4.78 percent,accounting for 10.6 percent of economic growth and 14.8 percent of the total capital contribution.The contribution of technological progress varies with type and development stage.Compared with the 1980s,the period starting from the 1990s has seen a steady fall in the contribution of capital-embodied technological progress,and a V-shaped evolution in the contribution of neutral technological change,with the fall being larger than the rise.It will be impossible to sustain lasting high-speed economic growth unless the downward trend in the contribution of technological progress is fundamentally reversed.