金融危机后期的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线估计与经济政策启示

New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Post-Financial Crisis Era:Estimation,Economic Policy and Implications

菲利普斯曲线机制对判断宏观经济形势和制定经济政策具有重要影响。我们利用GMM估计对我国的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线进行了经验分析,检验结果表明我国存在"产出—价格"关系类型的菲利普斯曲线形式。通货膨胀率不仅与通货膨胀预期和实际产出缺口有关,而且具有一定的持续性。因此我们在应对加速通货膨胀时,需要加强通货膨胀预期管理和保持经济持续稳定增长。

Phillips curve mechanism plays an important role in judging macro-economic situation and economic policy-making.The GMM is used to estimate the empirical new Keynes Phillips curve in China and the result shows that the output-price of new Keynes Phillips curve indeed exists in China.The inflation not only relates to inflation expectation and actual output gap,but also has certain sustainability.So,when we cope with increasing inflation,we need to strengthen the management of inflation expectations and keep economic continuously and stably increasing.