外生冲击沿部门传导的作用机制和影响研究——基于中国七部门DSGE模型的数值模拟

The Transmission Mechanisms and Effects of Sector's Exogenous Shock

本文基于七部门DSGE模型的脉冲响应分析,认为外生冲击沿部门传导的作用机制主要包括推动作用、拉动作用和替代作用。其中推动作用和拉动作用是一个部门受到正向冲击带动其他部门产出上升的作用机制,而替代作用则可能使其他部门产出下降。多部门DSGE模型相比其他投入产出模型的优势在于通过引入消费者的最优决策较好地刻画了替代作用。模拟结果显示,对制造业的经济刺激政策对各部门产出的带动作用最大,而对建筑业和房地产业的经济刺激政策对各部门产出的带动作用则相对较小。

Based on a seven-sector DSGE model, this paper indicates there are three transmission mechanisms of sector＇s exogenous shock- pushing effect, pulling effect and substituting effect. The first two effects will increase output of each sector under positive sector＇s exogenous shock, but the last effect may not. The superiority of the DSGE model is that this model can reveal the substituting effect while others can not. From the impulse responses graphs, we can see that manufacturing sector＇s positive exogenous shock will stimulate the economy most, and the construction and real estate sector＇s exogenous shock can hardly stimulate the economy.