针对大尺度区域的大气环境容量综合估算方法

An integrated method of atmospheric environmental capacity estimation for large-scale region.

针对大尺度区域的特点,提出了将箱模型法、模拟法与线性规划法相结合的大气环境容量估算方法.其基本思路是将大尺度区域划分为一系列小区域,将真实污染源简化为源单元,基于线性规划法寻求区域最大容量及其优化配置方案.采用箱模型以保证源单元尺度的环境质量要求,采用模拟法以考虑二次污染对前体物环境容量的制约,将箱模型容量与模拟法容量作为规划法的约束条件.新方法使3种传统方法相互取长补短,其显著特征表现为:兼顾了污染源的局地性和区域性的影响;兼顾了污染物的一次影响和二次影响;大气环境容量的规划布局具有区域优化特征.应用新方法对我国东南沿海某区域进行了大气环境容量的评估试验,结果表明该方法合理可行.

According to the features of large-scale regions,a new method was proposed to estimate the atmospheric environmental capacity（AEC）,which combines the traditional box-model method,simulation method and linear programming method.The basic idea of the new method is that：the large-scale region is divided into a series of small sub-regions,and pollution sources are classified into different source units.The linear programming method searches the maximum capacity and optimal allocation of the AEC.The box-model method ensures the local air quality in sub-regions meet certain targets.The simulation method limits precursor emissions which cause secondary pollution in the regional scale.Results from the last two methods act as restrictions of the linear programming method.The integrated method makes the three traditional methods to be complementary,and therefore has three significant merits：First,it considers both local and regional influences of pollution sources.Second,it considers both direct and secondary effects of the pollutants.Finally,it can give optimal schemes for the AEC allocation over different sub-regions.A case study conducted for a region in southeast China indicates that the new method is reasonable and feasible.