中国农村居民储蓄率的影响因素——基于CGSS2006微观数据的实证研究

The Determinants of Household Saving Rate in Rural China——Empirical Research Based on CGSS206 Micro Data

使用2006年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2006)的微观数据,在综合考虑生命周期—持久收入假说和预防性储蓄理论的基础上,对中国农村居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了实证研究,并得出以下结论:持久收入、收入的不确定性与农户储蓄率之间存在显著的正相关关系,并且收入差距的增大会导致农村储蓄率的提高;农村居民储蓄率的生命周期特征并不明显,但在考虑了家庭的教育、医疗支出以后,储蓄率呈现出显著的U型生命周期特征,并且在45～49岁达到整个生命周期的最低点;家庭的人口年龄构成对农户储蓄率具有显著的影响;农户储蓄率与其财富水平之间存在负相关关系,并且户主的政治面貌、受教育程度、性别对农村居民储蓄率也会产生一定的影响。

This article explores the determinants of household saving in rural China empirically on the base of life cycle - permanent income and precautionary saving theory through micro data from China General Social Survey 2006 （CGSS2006）. The major conclusions are as follows：First, permanent income, income uncertainty have risen rural household saving rate significantly, and the rising income equality would increase household saving rate significantly; second, there is no clear life cycle in rural household saving rate, but after consideration of education, medical expenses, it showed a significant U-life-cycle characteristics, and reaching the lowest point of the entire life cycle in 45 ~49 years old; Third, family population age composition has significant impact on rural household saving rate ; fourth, there is significantly negative relationship between household wealth and saving rate, and characteristics of family head also had a certain influence on saving rate for rural household.