人口结构与储蓄率：基于内生人口结构的研究

Demographic Structure and Savings Rate:Based on the Endogenous Demographic Structure

本文在内生人口结构视角下研究了少儿抚养比、老人抚养比对储蓄率的影响。我们利用中国省际面板数据,通过面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,检验了抚养比、储蓄率和人均实际GDP之间的相互关系。结果表明,少儿和老人抚养比与储蓄率都呈负相关关系;经济增长导致少儿抚养比下降的幅度远高于老人抚养比升高的幅度,因此经济增长会伴随储蓄率的升高;此外,低出生率导致的老龄化过程会降低资本积累的动态无效率,但会伴随人均收入水平的下降。

This paper studies the effects of dependency ratio on savings rate with endogenous demographic structure. The authors apply PVAR model to test the interaction among dependency ratio, savings rate and per capita real GDP in China. The results show that the correlation between dependency ratio and savings rate is negative, the decrease of the young dependency ratio caused by economic growth is larger than the rise of the old depend- ency ratio. So economic growth is associated with increasing saving rate. Besides, the population aging caused by lower birth rate will reduce dynamic inefficiency of cauital accumulation and the uer eanita income.