全球流动性冲击对中国经济影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study about the Effects of Global Liquidity Shocks on China's Economy

本文首先阐述了外部流动性影响中国经济的传导路径和作用机制,然后建立全球流动性的量化指标并对其演变特征予以分析。基于结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)的实证研究结果显示,全球流动性扩张的外部冲击通过扩大出口和增加外商直接投资两种渠道直接拉动中国经济增长,经由国际大宗商品渠道所引发的输入型通胀压力也不容忽视。中央银行的对冲操作部分隔离了全球流动性向国内货币投放的传导,确保对宏观经济的掌控能力。

This paper introduces the transmission path and mechanism of global liquidity affecting China＇s economy, then sets up the indicators of global liquidity and analyzes its evolving characteristic. The findings of the empirical study reveal that the external shocks of global liquidity expansion drive economic growth of China through boosting export and increasing foreign direct investment. In addition, global liquidity shocks also exert pressure on China＇s inflation from the channel of international bulk stock. Using sterilization operation, China＇s central bank partly isolates domestic money supply from global liquidity, thus strengthens ability to adjust macro economy.