基于生产函数法的潜在产出估计、产出缺口及与通货膨胀的关系：1978-2009

Potential Output Based on Production Function Method,Output Gap and Inflation:1978～2009

本文利用生产函数法对1978年以来我国潜在产出进行了估计。结果表明,我国仍然处于规模报酬递增阶段;产出缺口对通货膨胀具有很强的解释作用;2007年我国实际产出超过潜在产出,物价上涨压力明显。尽管受全球金融危机的影响,2009年我国实际产出低于潜在产出水平,但产出缺口并不严重,这既表明我国经济刺激政策起到了应有作用,也说明随着经济的强劲复苏,扩张性经济政策应逐步回归中性,以保持经济的平稳健康发展。

With the production function method, the paper estimates the potential outputs and output gaps since 1978. The results show that China is still in the stage of increasing returns to scale, the output gap can strongly explains inflation. While it＇s obvious that economy was above the potential level since 2007, which just explain the inflation pressure. Although with the negative effects of global crisis, the real GDP was under-run, but the negative gap was not severe, which means the positive policy effects. Of course, with strong recovery, expansionary policies （esp. monetary policy） should go back to the neutral to keep the future economy going well.