新疆棉花种植面积时空格局演变特征及驱动机制研究

Spatio-temporal Pattern Dynamic of Cotton Plantation in Xinjiang and its Driving Forces

新疆棉花种植业发展迅速,已成为新疆国民经济的支柱产业之一,是农民增收的重要途径。对新中国成立以来新疆棉花种植业的调查数据进行统计分析,探究其时序演变规律和空间分布特点,并运用灰色系统关联分析和计量经济学的分析方法,构建棉花种植面积和其影响因素的交互作用关联度模型,定性与定量相结合揭示新疆棉花种植业发展的主要驱动力。研究结果表明:①自1949年以来,新疆棉花种植面积不断扩大,且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,三大棉区即南疆棉区,北疆棉区,东疆棉区变化特点各异,其中南疆棉区起主导作用。按绿洲划分,以塔里木盆地绿洲棉区和西北沿边绿洲棉区变化明显。②棉花种植面积与各影响因素间的关联度都较强,其中,棉花种植面积与棉花单产的关联度最强;进一步建立作用关系模型,得出其弹性为0.883。③运用以上关联分析结果,将南疆棉区划分为最宜棉区、适宜棉区、不宜棉区3种区域,其中适宜棉区占50%以上,表明目前南疆棉花种植业发展基本合理,但处于不宜棉区的部分县市应该减少棉花种植或退棉,进一步优化农业种植结构。

Xinjiang is the biggest cotton planting province in China.The cotton industry has a irreplaceable position in the development of rural economy and regional economy in Xinjiang.Through statistical analysis,the spatio-temporal distribution,main driving factors of cotton plantation dynamic are researched.The cotton plantation area has been increasing quickly since 1949 in Xinjiang,and its variation existed fluctuation and could be divided into several phases.There are three main cotton plantation area in Xinjiang： the South Xinjiang cotton plantation area,the North Xinjiang cotton plantation area,and the East Xinjiang cotton plantation area.The change of the South Xinjiang cotton plantation area was the most obvious.In relation with oasis distribution,the cotton plantation area in the oasis of the Tarim River Basin and the northwest border oasis belt changed obviously.Grey correlation analysis showed the yield per cotton plantation unit area had the most close correlation with cotton plantation area,and the function relationship model showed that the elasticity coefficient is 0.883.According to the associative degree and economic development,the 39 cities and counties in South Xinjiang can be clustered into three types suitable for cotton plantation,namely the most suitable area,suitable area and unsuitable area.The suitable area reaches 50%,and it shows that the development degree of cotton plantation in South Xinjing is suitable at present.