过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展

Research Progress in Millennium Paleoclimate Reconstructions

20世纪气候变暖的归因是当前全球共同关注的焦点之一,而解决这一问题的途径之一是对过去千年的气候变化历史进行精确重建。简要回顾过去千年气候重建的研究进展,重点关注古气候空间重建方法方面的最新进展,并将目前古气候空间重建方法划分为3类,即综合-比例法(Composite Plus Scale,CPS)、气候场重建法(Cli mate Field Reconstruction,CFR)以及状态空间模型(State-space Model)法,同时指出了这些方法的优缺点以及可能的解决途径。

The question of the attribution of the 20th-century climate change remains to be of the highest priority for climatologists.One approach for answering this question is to reconstruct climate of the past and then compare the current and past variations of climate.Here we make a review of the recent research progress in reconstruction of the past millennium climate,with special emphasis on climate field reconstruction methods.We classified the proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods into three categories,i.e.,composite plus scale,climate field reconstruction,and state-space model.The present status（advantages and disadvantages） and future prospects of these methods of paleoclimatic reconstruction for the last millennium are reviewed.